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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."